Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Thursday, 22 October, 18:30 MSK

JYP — Hameenlinna

Model prediction for 22 October

JYP52%

Draw in regulation21%

Hameenlinna27%

Model estimate at 11:24 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

JYP are clear favourites: 64% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 43%.

Why

JYP are more dangerous in attack: 2.9 expected goals against 2.1.

Facts

League table: JYP — No. 5, 21 pts; Hameenlinna — No. 10, 18 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
Hameenlinna: 4 wins in a row.
Last 5 meetings: JYP 2 wins, Hameenlinna 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: JYP — Hameenlinna		2.9–2.1
JYP to win (incl. OT and shootout)		64%
Hameenlinna to win (incl. OT and shootout)		36%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		43%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		57%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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Totals incl. OT
Handicap JYP
JYP goals
Overtime chance
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Form

JYP

09.10away · Kiekko-Espoo1:6
08.10away · SaiPa2:1
03.10away · TPS Turku1:4
02.10away · Hameenlinna1:2
25.09away · IFK Helsinki4:3

Hameenlinna

10.10KooKoo5:3
09.10away · Assat3:2 SO
03.10Karpat2:1 OT
02.10JYP2:1
29.09away · Jokerit0:3

Head to head

02.10.2026Hameenlinna — JYP2:1
05.02.2026JYP — Hameenlinna4:5 SO
30.12.2025Hameenlinna — JYP2:3 OT
19.12.2025Hameenlinna — JYP1:4
12.12.2025JYP — Hameenlinna3:4 SO

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Karpat	13	5	2	3	3	35–34	+1	22
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	JYP	10	7	0	0	3	30–25	+5	21
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Kiekko-Espoo	13	5	1	3	4	42–32	+10	20
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Tappara	11	5	2	0	4	32–24	+8	19
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Hameenlinna	12	4	3	0	5	28–35	-7	18
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	TPS Turku	11	5	0	1	5	29–25	+4	16

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →