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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)

Kaluga — Almetyevsk

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Model prediction for 7 November

Kaluga31%
Draw in regulation24%
Almetyevsk45%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

In short

Almetyevsk are favourites: 59% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.1 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 27%.

Why

  • Almetyevsk are more dangerous in attack: 2.3 expected goals against 1.9.

Facts

  • League table: Kaluga — No. 9, 26 pts; Almetyevsk — No. 3, 30 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
  • Kaluga: 3 defeats in a row; Almetyevsk: 5 wins in a row.
  • Days of rest before the match: Kaluga 10, Almetyevsk 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kaluga — Almetyevsk1.9–2.3
Kaluga to win (incl. OT and shootout)41%
Almetyevsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)59%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)27%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)73%

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Form

Kaluga

  • 28.10away · SKA-VMF St. Petersburg0:2
  • 26.10away · Dinamo St. Petersburg0:3
  • 24.10away · Zvezda Moscow2:3 OT
  • 22.10away · Khimik3:2 SO
  • 18.10Gornyak1:3

Almetyevsk

  • 03.11away · Ryazan2:1
  • 25.10away · Bars2:0
  • 21.10CSK VVS3:2 OT
  • 14.10SKA-VMF St. Petersburg2:1 SO
  • 12.10Dinamo St. Petersburg3:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
2, PlayoffsHC Norilsk22152557–47+1032
3, PlayoffsAlmetyevsk19150453–34+1930
4, PlayoffsAKM21125461–48+1329
8, PlayoffsKhimik20114569–47+2226
9, PlayoffsKaluga20114543–34+926
10, PlayoffsSKA-VMF St. Petersburg17121448–23+2525

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

VHL on the same day

  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.7
  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →