Swiss National League (hockey) · Wednesday, 11 November, (UTC+3)
Lugano — Bern
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 11 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Lugano are favourites: 54% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 5.0 in total, against a competition average of 5.4.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 43%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.6 and 2.4.
Facts
- League table: Lugano — No. 12, 22 pts; Bern — No. 6, 28 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Lugano 3 wins, Bern 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lugano — Bern | 2.6–2.4 | |
| Lugano to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 54% | |
| Bern to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 46% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 43% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 57% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Lugano
- Lugano goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 31.10away · Ambri-Piotta3:4
- 29.10Lausanne4:0
- 27.10away · Zug2:7
- 25.10away · Bern1:2 OT
- 23.10EHC Kloten2:5
Head to head
- 25.10.2026Bern — Lugano2:1 OT
- 16.01.2026Bern — Lugano1:4
- 07.12.2025Lugano — Bern3:1
- 24.10.2025Bern — Lugano1:4
- 23.09.2025Lugano — Bern0:3
Table
National League on the same day
- ZugAmbri-Piottapreliminary62381The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →