VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Thursday, 15 October, MSK
Metallurg Novokuznetsk — Toros Neftekamsk
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 October
In short
Metallurg Novokuznetsk are clear favourites: 77% to win including overtime and shootout.
4.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (4.7).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 36%.
Why
- Metallurg Novokuznetsk are more dangerous in attack: 3.0 expected goals against 1.6.
Facts
- League table: Metallurg Novokuznetsk — No. 8, 19 pts; Toros Neftekamsk — No. 18, 14 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
- Metallurg Novokuznetsk: 4 wins in a row; Toros Neftekamsk: 4 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Metallurg Novokuznetsk 5 wins, Toros Neftekamsk 0.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Metallurg Novokuznetsk — Toros Neftekamsk | 3.0–1.6 | |
| Metallurg Novokuznetsk to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 77% | |
| Toros Neftekamsk to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 23% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 36% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 64% |
111 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Metallurg Novokuznetsk
- Metallurg Novokuznetsk goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 13.10Izhevsk3:2 SO
- 11.10Olympia2:0
- 05.10away · Kristall Saratov2:0
- 03.10away · Dizel2:0
- 01.10away · Tambov0:3
- 13.10away · Krasnoyarsk0:2
- 10.10away · HC Norilsk3:5
- 05.10Kaluga0:1
- 03.10AKM0:3
- 01.10Ryazan3:0
Head to head
- 19.01.2026Toros Neftekamsk — Metallurg Novokuznetsk4:5 SO
- 01.11.2025Metallurg Novokuznetsk — Toros Neftekamsk3:0
- 14.01.2025Toros Neftekamsk — Metallurg Novokuznetsk1:5
- 08.11.2024Metallurg Novokuznetsk — Toros Neftekamsk4:1
- 05.12.2023Metallurg Novokuznetsk — Toros Neftekamsk4:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7, Playoffs | Orsk | 12 | 8 | +13 | 19 |
| 8, Playoffs | Metallurg Novokuznetsk | 14 | 8 | +11 | 19 |
| 9, Playoffs | Khimik | 14 | 8 | +18 | 18 |
| 17 | Magnitka Magnitogorsk | 12 | 5 | +2 | 14 |
| 18 | Toros Neftekamsk | 13 | 6 | -1 | 14 |
| 19 | Rubin Tyumen | 12 | 7 | -3 | 14 |
VHL on the same day
- 50501The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.7
- 44562The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.3
- 64361The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.9
- 78221The model's most likely outcome: 119%Model's score: 3:14.3
- 54461The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →