Kazakhstan Hockey Championship · Thursday, 19 November, 17:00 (UTC+3)

Nomad Astana — Almaty

Model prediction for 19 November

Nomad Astana75%

Draw in regulation14%

Almaty11%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Nomad Astana are clear favourites: 85% to win including overtime and shootout.

6.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 60%.

Why

Nomad Astana are more dangerous in attack: 4.1 expected goals against 1.8.

Facts

League table: Nomad Astana — No. 2, 42 pts; Almaty — No. 7, 23 pts. A gap of 19 pts.
Nomad Astana: 3 defeats in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Nomad Astana 4 wins, Almaty 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Nomad Astana — Almaty		4.1–1.8
Nomad Astana to win (incl. OT and shootout)		85%
Almaty to win (incl. OT and shootout)		15%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		60%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		40%

111 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Nomad Astana
Nomad Astana goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Form

Nomad Astana

30.10away · Torpedo0:3
29.10away · Torpedo3:6
25.10away · Gornyak Rudny0:6
24.10away · Gornyak Rudny3:1
20.10away · Beibarys Atyrau3:2

Almaty

30.10away · Karaganda1:6
29.10away · Karaganda5:4 SO
26.10away · Kokshetau3:4
25.10away · Kokshetau0:3
20.10Torpedo0:4

Head to head

11.09.2026Nomad Astana — Almaty6:1
10.09.2026Nomad Astana — Almaty6:2
11.03.2026Nomad Astana — Almaty9:2
08.03.2026Almaty — Nomad Astana1:2
05.03.2026Nomad Astana — Almaty2:4

Full record: 24 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Playoffs	Torpedo	26	21	2	3	138–46	+92	44
2, Playoffs	Nomad Astana	25	20	2	3	102–61	+41	42
3, Playoffs	Kokshetau	26	20	1	5	97–58	+39	41
6, Playoffs	Gornyak Rudny	26	14	1	11	90–68	+22	29
7, Playoffs	Almaty	26	11	1	14	66–92	-26	23
8, Playoffs	Aktobe	26	6	1	19	69–117	-48	13

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Kazakhstan Championship on the same day

17:00
Beibarys AtyrauKaragandapreliminary
1387
2The model's most likely outcome: 214%Model's score: 1:45.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 75% will not happen in roughly 25 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →