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Kazakhstan Hockey Championship · Friday, 20 November, (UTC+3)

Nomad Astana — Almaty

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Model prediction for 20 November

Nomad Astana75%
Draw in regulation14%
Almaty11%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Nomad Astana are clear favourites: 85% to win including overtime and shootout.

6.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 60%.

Why

  • Nomad Astana are more dangerous in attack: 4.1 expected goals against 1.8.

Facts

  • League table: Nomad Astana — No. 2, 42 pts; Almaty — No. 7, 23 pts. A gap of 19 pts.
  • Nomad Astana: 3 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Nomad Astana 4 wins, Almaty 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Nomad Astana — Almaty4.1–1.8
Nomad Astana to win (incl. OT and shootout)85%
Almaty to win (incl. OT and shootout)15%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)60%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)40%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Nomad Astana
  • Nomad Astana goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Nomad Astana

  • 30.10away · Torpedo0:3
  • 29.10away · Torpedo3:6
  • 25.10away · Gornyak Rudny0:6
  • 24.10away · Gornyak Rudny3:1
  • 20.10away · Beibarys Atyrau3:2

Almaty

  • 30.10away · Karaganda1:6
  • 29.10away · Karaganda5:4 SO
  • 26.10away · Kokshetau3:4
  • 25.10away · Kokshetau0:3
  • 20.10Torpedo0:4

Head to head

  • 11.09.2026Nomad Astana — Almaty6:1
  • 10.09.2026Nomad Astana — Almaty6:2
  • 11.03.2026Nomad Astana — Almaty9:2
  • 08.03.2026Almaty — Nomad Astana1:2
  • 05.03.2026Nomad Astana — Almaty2:4

Full record: 24 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, PlayoffsTorpedo262123138–46+9244
2, PlayoffsNomad Astana252023102–61+4142
3, PlayoffsKokshetau26201597–58+3941
6, PlayoffsGornyak Rudny261411190–68+2229
7, PlayoffsAlmaty261111466–92-2623
8, PlayoffsAktobe26611969–117-4813

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 75% will not happen in roughly 25 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →