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KHL · Monday, 23 November, (UTC+3)

Novosibirsk — Cherepovets

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Model prediction for 23 November

Novosibirsk34%
Draw in regulation23%
Cherepovets42%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Cherepovets are favourites: 55% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.5 in total, against a competition average of 5.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 33%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.1 and 2.3.

Facts

  • League table: Novosibirsk — No. 19, 21 pts; Cherepovets — No. 8, 26 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Novosibirsk 2 wins, Cherepovets 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Novosibirsk — Cherepovets2.1–2.3
Novosibirsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)45%
Cherepovets to win (incl. OT and shootout)55%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)33%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)67%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Novosibirsk
  • Novosibirsk goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Novosibirsk

  • 04.11Bars Kazan3:1
  • 01.11Niznekamsk1:3
  • 29.10Magnitogorsk5:2
  • 26.10away · Tractor Chelyabinsk1:2
  • 24.10away · Magnitogorsk1:5

Cherepovets

  • 03.11away · Shanghai1:3
  • 30.10Spartak Moscow1:5
  • 29.10Spartak Moscow3:2 SO
  • 25.10away · Lokomotiv Yaroslavl0:1
  • 23.10away · Spartak Moscow1:3

Head to head

  • 13.01.2026Cherepovets — Novosibirsk2:3
  • 22.09.2025Novosibirsk — Cherepovets2:4
  • 19.10.2024Novosibirsk — Cherepovets2:4
  • 12.09.2024Cherepovets — Novosibirsk2:5
  • 26.01.2024Cherepovets — Novosibirsk4:0

Full record: 28 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
7, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSpartak Moscow22124659–42+1728
8, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceCherepovets23122951–53-226
9, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceBarys Astana21121871–57+1425
18Salavat Ufa221011161–67-621
19Novosibirsk24931254–69-1521
20Tractor Chelyabinsk21831043–53-1019

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →