Kazakhstan Hockey Championship · Monday, 16 November, (UTC+3)
Pavlodar — Kokshetau
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 16 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Kokshetau are clear favourites: 99% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects plenty of goals: 8.3 in total, against a competition average of 6.2.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 86%.
Why
- Kokshetau are more dangerous in attack: 7.0 expected goals against 1.3.
Facts
- League table: Pavlodar — No. 10, 1 pt; Kokshetau — No. 3, 41 pts. A gap of 40 pts.
- Pavlodar: 5 defeats in a row; Kokshetau: 5 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Pavlodar 0 wins, Kokshetau 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Pavlodar — Kokshetau | 1.3–7.0 | |
| Pavlodar to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 1% | |
| Kokshetau to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 99% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 86% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 14% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Pavlodar
- Pavlodar goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 30.10Aktobe4:7
- 29.10Aktobe2:5
- 21.10away · Kokshetau2:9
- 20.10away · Kokshetau1:5
- 16.10Torpedo1:12
- 30.10away · Gornyak Rudny4:0
- 29.10away · Gornyak Rudny3:2
- 26.10Almaty4:3
- 25.10Almaty3:0
- 21.10Pavlodar9:2
Head to head
- 21.10.2026Kokshetau — Pavlodar9:2
- 20.10.2026Kokshetau — Pavlodar5:1
- 28.09.2026Kokshetau — Pavlodar5:3
- 27.09.2026Kokshetau — Pavlodar11:2
- 11.02.2026Kokshetau — Pavlodar9:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Playoffs | Nomad Astana | 25 | 20 | +41 | 42 |
| 3, Playoffs | Kokshetau | 26 | 20 | +39 | 41 |
| 4, Playoffs | Karaganda | 26 | 17 | +48 | 38 |
| 9 | Beibarys Atyrau | 25 | 5 | -37 | 12 |
| 10 | Pavlodar | 24 | 0 | -156 | 1 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 97% will not happen in roughly 3 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →