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Kazakhstan Hockey Championship · Tuesday, 17 November, (UTC+3)

Pavlodar — Kokshetau

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Model prediction for 17 November

Pavlodar1%
Draw in regulation2%
Kokshetau97%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Kokshetau are clear favourites: 99% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects plenty of goals: 8.3 in total, against a competition average of 6.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 86%.

Why

  • Kokshetau are more dangerous in attack: 7.0 expected goals against 1.3.

Facts

  • League table: Pavlodar — No. 10, 1 pt; Kokshetau — No. 3, 41 pts. A gap of 40 pts.
  • Pavlodar: 5 defeats in a row; Kokshetau: 5 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Pavlodar 0 wins, Kokshetau 5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Pavlodar — Kokshetau1.3–7.0
Pavlodar to win (incl. OT and shootout)1%
Kokshetau to win (incl. OT and shootout)99%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)86%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)14%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Pavlodar
  • Pavlodar goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Pavlodar

  • 30.10Aktobe4:7
  • 29.10Aktobe2:5
  • 21.10away · Kokshetau2:9
  • 20.10away · Kokshetau1:5
  • 16.10Torpedo1:12

Kokshetau

  • 30.10away · Gornyak Rudny4:0
  • 29.10away · Gornyak Rudny3:2
  • 26.10Almaty4:3
  • 25.10Almaty3:0
  • 21.10Pavlodar9:2

Head to head

  • 21.10.2026Kokshetau — Pavlodar9:2
  • 20.10.2026Kokshetau — Pavlodar5:1
  • 28.09.2026Kokshetau — Pavlodar5:3
  • 27.09.2026Kokshetau — Pavlodar11:2
  • 11.02.2026Kokshetau — Pavlodar9:2

Full record: 19 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
2, PlayoffsNomad Astana252023102–61+4142
3, PlayoffsKokshetau26201597–58+3941
4, PlayoffsKaraganda261745108–60+4838
9Beibarys Atyrau25521848–85-3712
10Pavlodar24012331–187-1561

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Kazakhstan Championship on the same day

  • TorpedoKulagerpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 117%Model's score: 4:15.4
  • AktobeGornyak Rudnypreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 215%Model's score: 2:56.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 97% will not happen in roughly 3 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →