Alexander Volkanovski — Movsar Evloevbeta

Model prediction and result

1:0 (KO/TKO)Missed

Alexander Volkanovski40%

Movsar Evloev60%

Model estimate at 12:42 (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:0 (KO/TKO): the model's most likely outcome, Movsar Evloev to win (60%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 60% fails in about 40 bouts out of 100 on average.

Movsar Evloev are slightly stronger: 60% against 40%.

Why

Elo rating: Alexander Volkanovski 1631, Movsar Evloev 1652.

Probabilities

Form

Alexander Volkanovski

01.02Diego Lopes1:0
13.04Diego Lopes1:0
18.02Ilia Topuria0:1
22.10Islam Makhachev0:1
09.07Yair Rodriguez1:0

Movsar Evloev

22.03Lerone Murphy1:0
08.12Aljamain Sterling1:0
21.01Arnold Allen1:0
07.05Diego Lopes1:0
05.06Dan Ige1:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 bouts out of 100. How to read probabilities →