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LNBP (Mexican basketball league) · Saturday, 31 October, (UTC+3) · Arena Astros

Astros — Fuerza Regia

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Model prediction and result

97:90 OTCame true
Astros61%
Fuerza Regia39%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 97:90 OT: the model's most likely outcome, Astros to win (61% incl. overtime), came true.

Astros are clear favourites: 61% against 39% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 88:85 — 173 points in total.

Over 172.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Astros +5.8, Fuerza Regia +3.9 points in regulation.

Facts

  • Astros: 5 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Astros 3 wins, Fuerza Regia 2.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Astros — Fuerza Regia88.2–84.8
Total over 172.5 (incl. OT)50%
Total under 172.5 (incl. OT)50%

223 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Astros points
  • Fuerza Regia points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Astros

  • 30.10Fuerza Regia96:89
  • 23.10away · Mineros81:72
  • 20.10Mineros86:83
  • 19.10Mineros100:78
  • 08.10Gambusinos86:71

Fuerza Regia

  • 30.10away · Astros89:96
  • 24.10away · Dorados106:97
  • 23.10away · Dorados116:120
  • 20.10Dorados80:76
  • 19.10Dorados101:90

Head to head

  • 30.10.2026Astros — Fuerza Regia96:89
  • 04.10.2026Astros — Fuerza Regia101:87
  • 03.10.2026Astros — Fuerza Regia74:77
  • 15.09.2025Astros — Fuerza Regia100:88
  • 14.09.2025Astros — Fuerza Regia98:107

Full record: 27 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWLPCTGB
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsSoles28217.750—
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsAstros28208.7141
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsFuerza Regia28199.6792
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPanteras28199.6792

Season 2026 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next match

  • Fuerza RegiaAstros3 November · LNBP
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 69:83. Model's score: —.173.1

LNBP on the same day

  • SolesPanteras
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 83:65. Model's score: —.165.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →