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LNBP (Mexican basketball league) · Thursday, 8 October, MSK · Inforum Irapuato

Freseros — Dorados

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Model prediction and result

77:105Came true
Freseros32%
Dorados68%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 77:105: the model's most likely outcome, Dorados to win (68% incl. overtime), came true.

Dorados are clear favourites: 68% against 32% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 84:90 — 175 points in total.

Over 174.5 points (incl. overtime) — 49%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Freseros −8.8, Dorados −1.0 point in regulation.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Freseros — Dorados84.5–90.4
Total over 174.5 (incl. OT)49%
Total under 174.5 (incl. OT)51%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Freseros points
  • Dorados points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Freseros

  • 07.10Dorados85:105
  • 03.10away · Santos87:108
  • 02.10away · Santos81:96
  • 27.09Panteras88:97
  • 26.09Panteras87:94

Dorados

  • 07.10away · Freseros105:85
  • 03.10away · Panteras85:81
  • 02.10away · Panteras85:91
  • 27.09Soles64:97
  • 26.09Soles81:98

Head to head

  • 07.10.2026Freseros — Dorados85:105
  • 26.07.2026Dorados — Freseros89:79
  • 25.07.2026Dorados — Freseros84:80
  • 15.09.2025Freseros — Dorados66:92
  • 14.09.2025Freseros — Dorados74:105

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWLPCTGB
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLobos Plateados281810.6433
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsDorados281711.6074
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMineros281513.5366
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsGambusinos281117.39310
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsFreseros28919.32112
13El Calor de Cancun28919.32112

Season 2026 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next matches

  • DoradosGambusinos12 October · LNBP
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 98:83. Model's score: —.166.4
  • Lobos PlateadosFreseros12 October · LNBP
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 105:86. Model's score: —.171.5

LNBP on the same day

  • CorrecaminosAbejas
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 89:95. Model's score: —.178.6
  • El Calor de CancunLobos Plateados
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 77:90. Model's score: —.163.7
  • AstrosGambusinos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 86:71. Model's score: —.162.8
  • MinerosSantos
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 82:93. Model's score: —.174.4
  • PanterasDiablos Rojos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 93:92 in overtime. Model's score: —.173.1
  • SolesFuerza Regia
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 75:92. Model's score: —.164.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 68% will not happen in roughly 32 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →