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NBB (Novo Basquete Brasil) · Tuesday, 17 November, (UTC+3)

Cruzeiro — Cearense

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Model prediction for 17 November

Cruzeiro91%
Cearense9%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Cruzeiro are clear favourites: 91% against 9% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 89:72 — 161 point in total.

Over 161.5 points (incl. overtime) — 49%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Cruzeiro −3.2, Cearense −17.4 points in regulation.

Facts

  • League table: Cruzeiro — No. 8, 3–2; Cearense — No. 18, 0–3.
  • Cearense: 5 defeats in a row.
  • Last 2 meetings: Cruzeiro 2 wins, Cearense 0.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Cruzeiro — Cearense89.3–72.0
Total over 161.5 (incl. OT)49%
Total under 161.5 (incl. OT)51%

231 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Cruzeiro points
  • Cearense points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Cruzeiro

  • 04.11away · Bauru78:74
  • 30.10Pato76:68
  • 28.10Brasilia80:89
  • 20.10away · Uniao Corinthians74:83
  • 18.10away · Caxias do Sul72:61

Cearense

  • 03.11away · Sao Jose53:96
  • 23.10Pinheiros63:98
  • 21.10Osasco69:93
  • 17.04away · Cruzeiro77:86
  • 15.04away · Minas56:87

Head to head

  • 17.04.2026Cruzeiro — Cearense86:77
  • 30.12.2025Cearense — Cruzeiro78:86

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWLPCTGB
7, PlayoffsBrasilia532.6002
8, PlayoffsCruzeiro532.6002
9, PlayoffsUniao Corinthians523.4003
17Caxias do Sul505.0005
18, RelegationCearense303.0004

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

NBB on the same day

  • Sao JoseMogipreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —151.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 91% will not happen in roughly 9 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →