Liga ACB (Spanish basketball league) · Saturday, 21 November, 23:00 (UTC+3)

Murcia — Basket Zaragoza

Model prediction for 21 November

Murcia69%

Basket Zaragoza31%

Model estimate at 16:51 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Murcia are clear favourites: 69% against 31% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 95:89 — 184 points in total.

Over 183.5 points (incl. overtime) — 49%.

Why

Team strength against the league average: Murcia +1.4, Basket Zaragoza −1.1 points in regulation.

Facts

League table: Murcia — No. 12, 3–3; Basket Zaragoza — No. 7, 4–2.
Last 5 meetings: Murcia 5 wins, Basket Zaragoza 0.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Murcia — Basket Zaragoza		95.0–89.0
Total over 183.5 (incl. OT)		49%
Total under 183.5 (incl. OT)		51%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All handicaps
All totals
Murcia points
Basket Zaragoza points
Regulation 1X2
Offence and defence strength

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Form

Murcia

31.10Forca Lleida125:98
24.10Leyma Coruna88:81
18.10away · Valencia93:116
11.10Tenerife77:90
04.10Barcelona100:94

Basket Zaragoza

31.10Basquet Girona107:78
24.10away · Barcelona81:99
18.10Forca Lleida109:98
10.10away · Leyma Coruna92:71
04.10Valencia82:97

Head to head

24.05.2026Basket Zaragoza — Murcia90:100
18.01.2026Murcia — Basket Zaragoza90:84
01.02.2025Basket Zaragoza — Murcia79:88
19.10.2024Murcia — Basket Zaragoza88:74
01.05.2024Murcia — Basket Zaragoza82:77

Full record: 14 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	L	PCT	GB
6, Playoffs	Bilbao	6	4	2	.667	2
7, Playoffs	Basket Zaragoza	6	4	2	.667	2
8, Playoffs	Baskonia	6	4	2	.667	2
11	Obradoiro CAB	6	3	3	.500	3
12	Murcia	6	3	3	.500	3
13	San Pablo Burgos	6	2	4	.333	4

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Liga ACB on the same day

20:00
San Pablo BurgosUnicajapreliminary
4951
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —176.8
21:30
ManresaMoraBanc Andorrapreliminary
5743
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —187.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 69% will not happen in roughly 31 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →