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Liga Nacional de Básquet (Argentina) · Tuesday, 3 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio Vicente Rosales

Olimpico — Penarol

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Model prediction and result

74:87Missed
Olimpico56%
Penarol44%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 74:87: the model's most likely outcome, Olimpico to win (56% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 56% fails in about 44 matches out of 100 on average.

Olimpico are slightly stronger: 56% against 44%.

The model expects a score around 84:83 — 167 points in total.

Over 166.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Olimpico +0.5, Penarol +2.5 points in regulation.

Facts

  • Olimpico: 3 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Olimpico 2 wins, Penarol 3.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Olimpico — Penarol84.4–82.7
Total over 166.5 (incl. OT)50%
Total under 166.5 (incl. OT)50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Olimpico points
  • Penarol points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Olimpico

  • 21.10away · San Martin106:86
  • 19.10away · Regatas83:80
  • 13.10Boca Juniors93:80
  • 08.10Atenas87:91
  • 02.10Platense74:82

Penarol

  • 31.10away · Quimsa73:78
  • 28.10San Martin95:76
  • 17.10away · San Lorenzo92:85
  • 15.10away · Lanus84:77
  • 01.10Gimnasia62:57

Head to head

  • 05.02.2026Olimpico — Penarol74:87
  • 11.12.2025Penarol — Olimpico82:76
  • 13.03.2025Penarol — Olimpico90:58
  • 24.01.2025Olimpico — Penarol78:72
  • 05.03.2024Penarol — Olimpico73:82

Full record: 15 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWLPCTGB
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsQuimsa6601.000—
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPenarol651.8331
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsGimnasia972.7780.5
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsArgentino633.5003
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsOlimpico633.5003
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsBoca Juniors633.5003

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next matches

  • OlimpicoLanus5 November · Liga Nacional
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —162.8
  • PlatensePenarol12 November · Liga Nacional · preliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —165.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →