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Liga Nacional de Básquet (Argentina) · Saturday, 31 October, (UTC+3) · Ciudad de Santiago del Estero

Quimsa — Penarol

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Model prediction and result

78:73Came true
Quimsa76%
Penarol24%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 78:73: the model's most likely outcome, Quimsa to win (76% incl. overtime), came true.

Quimsa are clear favourites: 76% against 24% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 86:77 — 163 points in total.

Over 161.5 points (incl. overtime) — 51%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Quimsa +7.1, Penarol +2.2 points in regulation.

Facts

  • Quimsa: 5 wins in a row; Penarol: 4 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Quimsa 3 wins, Penarol 2.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Quimsa — Penarol85.5–77.0
Total over 161.5 (incl. OT)51%
Total under 161.5 (incl. OT)49%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Quimsa points
  • Penarol points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Quimsa

  • 26.10away · Racing de Chivilcoy68:54
  • 24.10away · Argentino78:76
  • 11.10Boca Juniors105:96
  • 06.10Atenas83:77
  • 04.10Platense94:67

Penarol

  • 28.10San Martin95:76
  • 17.10away · San Lorenzo92:85
  • 15.10away · Lanus84:77
  • 01.10Gimnasia62:57
  • 03.05Ferro68:84

Head to head

  • 03.02.2026Quimsa — Penarol89:66
  • 09.10.2025Penarol — Quimsa88:85
  • 29.03.2025Penarol — Quimsa63:81
  • 25.01.2025Quimsa — Penarol79:84
  • 19.06.2024Quimsa — Penarol91:60

Full record: 19 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWLPCTGB
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsQuimsa6601.000—
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPenarol651.8331
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsGimnasia972.7780.5

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next matches

  • OlimpicoPenarol3 November · Liga Nacional
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 74:87. Model's score: —.167.1
  • QuimsaLanus7 November · Liga Nacional
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —156.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 76% will not happen in roughly 24 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →