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LNBP (Mexican basketball league) · Thursday, 8 October, MSK · Poliforum Benito Juárez

El Calor de Cancun — Lobos Plateados

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Model prediction and result

77:90Came true
El Calor de Cancun42%
Lobos Plateados58%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 77:90: the model's most likely outcome, Lobos Plateados to win (58% incl. overtime), came true.

Lobos Plateados are slightly stronger: 58% against 42%.

The model expects a score around 81:83 — 164 points in total.

Over 163.5 points (incl. overtime) — 49%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: El Calor de Cancun −4.7, Lobos Plateados −0.3 points in regulation.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): El Calor de Cancun — Lobos Plateados80.6–83.1
Total over 163.5 (incl. OT)49%
Total under 163.5 (incl. OT)51%

223 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • El Calor de Cancun points
  • Lobos Plateados points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

El Calor de Cancun

  • 07.10Lobos Plateados77:68
  • 03.10Gambusinos74:67
  • 02.10Gambusinos82:71
  • 27.09away · Fuerza Regia89:95
  • 26.09away · Fuerza Regia74:82

Lobos Plateados

  • 07.10away · El Calor de Cancun68:77
  • 03.10away · Correcaminos90:85
  • 02.10away · Correcaminos97:75
  • 28.09Mineros81:84
  • 27.09Mineros91:68

Head to head

  • 07.10.2026El Calor de Cancun — Lobos Plateados77:68
  • 25.07.2026Lobos Plateados — El Calor de Cancun80:63
  • 24.07.2026Lobos Plateados — El Calor de Cancun96:93
  • 12.10.2024El Calor de Cancun — Lobos Plateados90:76
  • 11.10.2024El Calor de Cancun — Lobos Plateados68:65

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWLPCTGB
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPanteras28199.6792
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLobos Plateados281810.6433
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsDorados281711.6074
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsFreseros28919.32112
13El Calor de Cancun28919.32112
14Correcaminos28424.14317

Season 2026 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next match

  • Lobos PlateadosFreseros12 October · LNBP
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 105:86. Model's score: —.171.5

LNBP on the same day

  • CorrecaminosAbejas
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 89:95. Model's score: —.178.6
  • AstrosGambusinos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 86:71. Model's score: —.162.8
  • FreserosDorados
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 77:105. Model's score: —.174.8
  • MinerosSantos
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 82:93. Model's score: —.174.4
  • PanterasDiablos Rojos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 93:92 in overtime. Model's score: —.173.1
  • SolesFuerza Regia
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 75:92. Model's score: —.164.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →