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LNBP (Mexican basketball league) · Thursday, 8 October, MSK · Auditorio PSF

Soles — Fuerza Regia

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Model prediction and result

75:92Missed
Soles72%
Fuerza Regia28%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 75:92: the model's most likely outcome, Soles to win (72% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 72% fails in about 28 matches out of 100 on average.

Soles are clear favourites: 72% against 28% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 86:79 — 165 points in total.

Over 163.5 points (incl. overtime) — 51%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Soles +8.4, Fuerza Regia +2.9 points in regulation.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Soles 2 wins, Fuerza Regia 3.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Soles — Fuerza Regia86.0–78.5
Total over 163.5 (incl. OT)51%
Total under 163.5 (incl. OT)49%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Soles points
  • Fuerza Regia points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Soles

  • 07.10Fuerza Regia88:86
  • 03.10Diablos Rojos86:43
  • 02.10Diablos Rojos84:93
  • 27.09away · Dorados97:64
  • 26.09away · Dorados98:81

Fuerza Regia

  • 07.10away · Soles86:88
  • 04.10away · Astros87:101
  • 03.10away · Astros77:74
  • 27.09El Calor de Cancun95:89
  • 26.09El Calor de Cancun82:74

Head to head

  • 07.10.2026Soles — Fuerza Regia88:86
  • 27.07.2026Fuerza Regia — Soles95:89 OT
  • 26.07.2026Fuerza Regia — Soles94:91 OT
  • 10.09.2025Fuerza Regia — Soles102:81
  • 09.09.2025Fuerza Regia — Soles91:97

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWLPCTGB
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsSoles28217.750—
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsAstros28208.7141
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsFuerza Regia28199.6792
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPanteras28199.6792

Season 2026 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

LNBP on the same day

  • CorrecaminosAbejas
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 89:95. Model's score: —.178.6
  • El Calor de CancunLobos Plateados
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 77:90. Model's score: —.163.7
  • AstrosGambusinos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 86:71. Model's score: —.162.8
  • FreserosDorados
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 77:105. Model's score: —.174.8
  • MinerosSantos
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 82:93. Model's score: —.174.4
  • PanterasDiablos Rojos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 93:92 in overtime. Model's score: —.173.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 72% will not happen in roughly 28 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →