UEFA Champions League: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 117 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 117 matches 10,000 times. Arsenal have the best chance to top the league phase: 22%, Paris Saint-Germain 21%. Most likely to go straight to the round of 16: Arsenal (84%).
Race for first place
| Date | Arsenal | Paris Saint-Germain | Bayern München | Barcelona | Liverpool | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 September | 19% | 20% | 14% | 6% | 8% | 4% |
| 21 September | 20% | 19% | 15% | 6% | 8% | 4% |
| 28 September | 19% | 19% | 16% | 6% | 8% | 4% |
| 5 October | 18% | 19% | 16% | 6% | 9% | 4% |
| 12 October | 19% | 20% | 14% | 6% | 8% | 5% |
| 13 October | 22% | 21% | 6% | 12% | 9% | 7% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “Knockouts” counts “Last 16” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | 1st | Last 16 | Knockouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 6 (2) | 19 | 17 | 22%▲4 | 84%▲8 | >99%▲1 |
| 2 | Paris Saint-Germain | 3 (1) | 18 | 14 | 21%▲2 | 74%▲2 | 98% |
| 3 | Barcelona | 6 (2) | 17 | 1 | 12%▲6 | 67%▲23 | 99%▲8 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 3 (1) | 16 | 34 | 9% | 59%▲2 | 95% |
| 5 | Sporting CP | 6 (2) | 16 | 23 | 7%▲3 | 56%▲15 | 98%▲7 |
| 6 | Bayern München | 4 (2) | 16 | 9 | 6%▼10 | 60%▼6 | 98%▲1 |
| 7 | Real Madrid | 3 (1) | 15 | 22 | 5% | 46%▲1 | 92%▲1 |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 3 (1) | 14 | 24 | 5% | 40%▼3 | 90%▼1 |
| 9 | Manchester City | 3 (1) | 13 | 6 | 3%▼1 | 31%▼4 | 86%▼2 |
| 10 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 (1) | 13 | 21 | 3%▲1 | 31%▲4 | 84%▲4 |
| 11 | Atlético Madrid | 3 (2) | 13 | 13 | 1% | 28%▲5 | 87%▲9 |
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 (1) | 13 | 10 | 2% | 25%▲2 | 81%▲3 |
| 13 | Club Brugge | 3 (2) | 12 | 28 | <1% | 17%▲10 | 75%▲29 |
| 14 | Real Betis | 3 (1) | 11 | 7 | 1% | 16%▼4 | 72%▼3 |
| 15 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 (1) | 11 | 29 | 1% | 18%▼2 | 72%▼3 |
| 16 | Como | 3 (1) | 11 | 4 | 1% | 17%▲1 | 71%▲3 |
| 17 | AEK Athens | 3 (1) | 11 | 18 | 1% | 14% | 68%▲3 |
| 18 | RB Leipzig | 3 (2) | 11 | 16 | <1% | 11%▲2 | 68%▲13 |
| 19 | Manchester United | 3 (2) | 11 | 19 | <1%▼1 | 12%▼7 | 71%▼2 |
| 20 | Feyenoord | 0 (1) | 11 | 36 | <1% | 15%▲2 | 67%▲2 |
| 21 | Bodø/Glimt | 0 (1) | 11 | 32 | <1% | 14%▼2 | 65%▼2 |
| 22 | Slovan Bratislava | 0 (1) | 10 | 33 | <1% | 10%▼1 | 57%▲1 |
| 23 | Lens | 3 (2) | 10 | 11 | <1%▼1 | 7%▼12 | 58%▼14 |
| 24 | Villarreal | 3 (2) | 10 | 26 | <1% | 6% | 57%▲12 |
| 25 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 (2) | 9 | 27 | <1%▼1 | 6%▼9 | 56%▼11 |
| 26 | Fenerbahçe | 1 (1) | 9 | 20 | <1% | 7%▲1 | 51%▲2 |
| 27 | Sabah FK | 3 (2) | 9 | 12 | <1% | 3%▼1 | 47%▲8 |
| 28 | Roma | 1 (1) | 9 | 5 | <1% | 5%▼1 | 44%▼4 |
| 29 | Inter | 0 (2) | 8 | 8 | <1%▼1 | 5%▼12 | 46%▼23 |
| 30 | LASK | 0 (1) | 8 | 25 | <1% | 4%▼1 | 40%▼3 |
| 31 | FC Porto | 0 (1) | 8 | 31 | <1% | 4%▲1 | 40%▲2 |
| 32 | Napoli | 0 (2) | 8 | 35 | — | 2%▼5 | 39%▼12 |
| 33 | Lille | 0 (2) | 8 | 15 | — | 2%▼4 | 39%▼4 |
| 34 | Viking | 1 (2) | 8 | 30 | — | 2%▼2 | 38%▼2 |
| 35 | Galatasaray | 0 (2) | 7 | 2 | — | 1%▼7 | 29%▼23 |
| 36 | Slavia Prague | 0 (2) | 6 | 3 | — | <1%▼2 | 20%▼10 |
Chance of every place
Show the 36 × 36 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 22 | 17 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Paris Saint-Germain | 21 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| Barcelona | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| Liverpool | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| Sporting CP | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Bayern München | 6 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Real Madrid | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Aston Villa | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Manchester City | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Atlético Madrid | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Club Brugge | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Como | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| AEK Athens | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| RB Leipzig | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Manchester United | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| Bodø/Glimt | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |
| Lens | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Villarreal | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |||
| Fenerbahçe | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | ||
| Sabah FK | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||||||
| Roma | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | |||
| Inter | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||||
| LASK | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | ||||
| FC Porto | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | ||||
| Napoli | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | ||||||
| Lille | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | ||||||
| Viking | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | ||||||
| Galatasaray | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 10 | |||||||||
| Slavia Prague | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 16 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
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