Ekstraklasa: matchday 11 predictions
16–19 October · 9 matches · season 2026/27
Ekstraklasa matchday 11: 9 matches, 16–19 October. The model expects 2.9 goals per match on average. Its most likely outcome is a home win in 6 matches, an away win in 0 and a draw in 3. In matchday 10 the most likely outcome came true in 6 of 9 matches.
The round at a glance
- Biggest favouriteLech Poznań — Korona KielceLech Poznań 71% to win; most likely score 3:1
- Closest matchCracovia — Legia Warszawa36% v 35%, draw 30%
- Most goals expectedWieczysta Kraków — Raków Częstochowa3.5 goals on average; over 2.5: 67%
- Possible upsetGórnik Zabrze — Piast GliwicePiast Gliwice 17% to win: the best underdog chance of the round
- Top-of-the-table clashGKS Katowice — Pogoń Szczecin5th v 4th in the table: 39% v 31%
What is at stake
Górnik Zabrze lead with 25 points from 10 matches; Legia Warszawa are second, 3 points behind. The leader’s game this round: Górnik Zabrze — Piast Gliwice, 56% to win. Title chances by the season forecast: Górnik Zabrze 28%, Legia Warszawa 15%.
In the relegation zone: Radomiak Radom, Śląsk Wrocław and Raków Częstochowa; they are up to 5 points behind 15th place. A game at the bottom: Wieczysta Kraków — Raków Częstochowa. Most at risk by the season forecast: Raków Częstochowa, 64% to go down.
The matches
Friday, 16 October
- 4328291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.5
- 373033XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.6
Saturday, 17 October
- 4428281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- 3930311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- 363035XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.5
Sunday, 18 October
- 5626171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- 383032XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.7
- 7119101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.1
Monday, 19 October
- 4928231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
Probabilities: home win, draw, away win in 90 minutes; under the most likely outcome, its most likely score. The estimates are updated until kick-off.
Ekstraklasa: matches and table →Season forecast →Power rankings →