Polish Ekstraklasa, round 11 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Lech Poznań — Korona Kielce
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Lech Poznań are clear favourites: 69% against 11% for the opponent, draw 20%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Lech Poznań are about 1.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Lech Poznań — No. 3, 22 pts; Korona Kielce — No. 8, 15 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Lech Poznań 3 wins, Korona Kielce 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lech Poznań — Korona Kielce What is xG? | 2.1–0.9 | |
| Lech Poznań not to lose | 89% | |
| Korona Kielce not to lose | 31% | |
| No draw | 80% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Lech Poznań
- Lech Poznań goals
- Korona Kielce goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Śląsk Wrocław4:1
- 20.09Radomiak Radom5:1
- 17.09away · Crystal Palace0:4
- 12.09away · Górnik Zabrze1:2
- 06.09Raków Częstochowa1:0
- 11.10away · Pogoń Szczecin0:2
- 19.09Raków Częstochowa3:2
- 15.09Górnik Zabrze0:2
- 12.09away · Śląsk Wrocław2:1
- 05.09Wisła Kraków1:1
Head to head
- 22.02.2026Korona Kielce — Lech Poznań1:2
- 16.08.2025Lech Poznań — Korona Kielce1:1
- 05.04.2025Lech Poznań — Korona Kielce2:0
- 29.09.2024Korona Kielce — Lech Poznań2:3
- 25.05.2024Lech Poznań — Korona Kielce1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Champions League qualifying | Legia Warszawa | 10 | 6 | +13 | 22 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Lech Poznań | 9 | 7 | +13 | 22 |
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Pogoń Szczecin | 9 | 5 | +8 | 18 |
| 7 | Piast Gliwice | 10 | 5 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 | Korona Kielce | 10 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Zagłębie Lubin | 10 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
Ekstraklasa on the same day
- 5926161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- 353035XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 69% will not happen in roughly 31 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →