La Liga: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 301 matches to play · updated 14 October 2026
The model played the remaining 301 matches 10,000 times. Barcelona have the best chance to win the title: 86%, Real Madrid 10%. Closest to the drop: Málaga (61%).
Race for the title
| Date | Barcelona | Real Madrid | Villarreal | Atlético Madrid | Real Betis | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 August | 33% | 20% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 5% |
| 24 August | 57% | 20% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| 31 August | 63% | 27% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| 7 September | 79% | 17% | 1% | <1% | — | <1% |
| 14 September | 76% | 21% | 1% | — | <1% | — |
| 21 September | 85% | 11% | <1% | 3% | <1% | — |
| 28 September | 87% | 10% | <1% | 3% | — | — |
| 5 October | 85% | 11% | <1% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 12 October | 86% | 10% | <1% | 3% | <1% | — |
| 14 October | 86% | 10% | <1% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “Europe” counts “UCL” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title | UCL | Europe | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 24 (8) | 96 | 19 | 86%▲1 | >99% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 18 (8) | 80 | 20 | 10%▼1 | 93%▲3 | 98%▲1 | — |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 19 (8) | 74 | 15 | 3% | 79%▲7 | 93%▲5 | <1% |
| 4 | Real Betis | 19 (8) | 65 | 10 | <1% | 45%▲9 | 73%▲11 | <1% |
| 5 | Villarreal | 8 (8) | 61 | 17 | <1% | 32%▼3 | 62%▲2 | 1% |
| 6 | Sevilla | 14 (8) | 54 | 14 | <1% | 12% | 32%▲2 | 3%▼1 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 8 (6) | 53 | 18 | <1% | 10%▼4 | 29%▼3 | 5%▲1 |
| 8 | Real Sociedad | 13 (8) | 52 | 11 | <1% | 8%▲1 | 24%▲4 | 6%▼2 |
| 9 | Deportivo Alavés | 11 (8) | 51 | 4 | — | 6%▼4 | 21%▼5 | 5% |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 8 (7) | 48 | 16 | <1% | 4%▼2 | 15%▼3 | 10%▲1 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 8 (8) | 45 | 3 | — | 2%▼1 | 8%▼2 | 14%▼1 |
| 12 | Levante | 6 (7) | 45 | 12 | <1% | 3%▼1 | 10%▼3 | 18%▲1 |
| 13 | Deportivo A Coruña | 10 (8) | 45 | 2 | — | 2% | 9%▲1 | 16% |
| 14 | Celta Vigo | 8 (8) | 45 | 1 | <1% | 2%▼1 | 9%▼1 | 15%▲1 |
| 15 | Elche | 6 (8) | 44 | 13 | — | 2% | 7%▼2 | 21%▲1 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 (8) | 42 | 5 | — | 1%▼1 | 5%▼2 | 27%▲4 |
| 17 | Racing Santander | 8 (8) | 40 | 9 | — | 1% | 4%▼1 | 33%▲2 |
| 18 | Valencia | 5 (8) | 40 | 8 | — | <1% | 2% | 32%▼4 |
| 19 | Getafe | 8 (8) | 39 | 6 | — | <1% | 1%▼1 | 34%▼1 |
| 20 | Málaga | 4 (8) | 33 | 7 | — | <1% | <1%▼1 | 61% |
Chance of every place
Show the 20 × 20 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 86 | 11 | 2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Real Madrid | 10 | 51 | 24 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| Atlético Madrid | 3 | 25 | 34 | 17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Real Betis | 7 | 16 | 21 | 16 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| Villarreal | 3 | 11 | 18 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Sevilla | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Athletic Club | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Real Sociedad | 2 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Deportivo Alavés | 1 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||
| Espanyol | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| Levante | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 | ||
| Deportivo A Coruña | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | |||
| Celta Vigo | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| Elche | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | |||
| Osasuna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 8 | ||||
| Racing Santander | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |||
| Valencia | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | ||||
| Getafe | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 10 | |||||
| Málaga | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 17 | 32 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.