DFB-Pokal, round 2 · Tuesday, 27 October, MSK
1. FC Köln — Union Berlin
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 27 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: 1. FC Köln 40%, Union Berlin 33%, draw 27%.
The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings 1. FC Köln are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: 1. FC Köln — Union Berlin What is xG? | 1.4–1.3 | |
| 1. FC Köln not to lose | 67% | |
| Union Berlin not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap 1. FC Köln
- 1. FC Köln goals
- Union Berlin goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Borussia Mönchengladbach2:1
- 19.09away · Hamburger SV1:2
- 12.09Werder Bremen1:1
- 04.09away · VfB Stuttgart1:4
- 29.08Hoffenheim3:2
- 10.10Elversberg1:0
- 18.09away · Bayern München0:7
- 11.09Schalke 041:3
- 05.09away · Bayer Leverkusen0:4
- 29.08Eintracht Frankfurt3:3
Head to head
- 02.05.2026Union Berlin — 1. FC Köln2:2
- 20.12.20251. FC Köln — Union Berlin0:1
- 11.05.20241. FC Köln — Union Berlin3:2
- 20.12.2023Union Berlin — 1. FC Köln2:0
- 04.03.2023Union Berlin — 1. FC Köln0:0
DFB-Pokal on the same day
- BochumMainz 05preliminary1822602The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:32.9
- Sonnenhof GroßaspachAugsburgpreliminary512832The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.6
- Hamburger SVEintracht Frankfurtpreliminary3527382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- RW EssenRB Leipzigpreliminary39882The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:43.9
- Borussia MönchengladbachKarlsruher SCpreliminary6122171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Borussia DortmundWerder Bremenpreliminary741791The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
- ElversbergDarmstadtpreliminary5923181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →