DFB-Pokal, round 2 · Tuesday, 27 October, MSK
Bochum — Mainz 05
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 27 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Mainz 05 are clear favourites: 60% against 18% for the opponent, draw 22%.
The model expects few goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Mainz 05 are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Bochum — Mainz 05 What is xG? | 1.0–2.0 | |
| Bochum not to lose | 40% | |
| Mainz 05 not to lose | 82% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Bochum
- Bochum goals
- Mainz 05 goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Arminia Bielefeld0:1
- 20.09away · Hannover 961:2
- 12.09Greuther Fürth1:1
- 05.09away · Dynamo Dresden2:1
- 28.08VfL Osnabrück0:1
- 10.10Bayer Leverkusen3:4
- 19.09away · Borussia Mönchengladbach4:3
- 12.09Eintracht Frankfurt1:3
- 06.09away · Hamburger SV5:0
- 29.08Paderborn0:0
Head to head
- 10.05.2025Bochum — Mainz 051:4
- 11.01.2025Mainz 05 — Bochum2:0
- 16.03.2024Mainz 05 — Bochum2:0
- 27.10.2023Bochum — Mainz 052:2
- 28.01.2023Mainz 05 — Bochum5:2
DFB-Pokal on the same day
- Sonnenhof GroßaspachAugsburgpreliminary512832The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.6
- Hamburger SVEintracht Frankfurtpreliminary3527382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- RW EssenRB Leipzigpreliminary39882The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:43.9
- Borussia MönchengladbachKarlsruher SCpreliminary6122171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Borussia DortmundWerder Bremenpreliminary741791The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
- ElversbergDarmstadtpreliminary5923181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- 1. FC KölnUnion Berlinpreliminary4027331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →