Norwegian Eliteserien, round 23 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Color Line Stadion
Aalesund — Sarpsborg 08
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:4Came true
In short
Final score 2:4: the model's most likely outcome, Sarpsborg 08 to win (36%), came true.
Evenly matched: Aalesund 36%, Sarpsborg 08 36%, draw 28%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.6 in total, against a competition average of 3.2.
Over 2.5 goals — 70%, both teams to score — 73%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sarpsborg 08 are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Aalesund — Sarpsborg 08 What is xG? | 1.8–1.8 | |
| Aalesund not to lose | 64% | |
| Sarpsborg 08 not to lose | 64% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 27% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 70% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 30% |
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- Sarpsborg 08 goals
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Form
- 18.09KFUM1:3
- 13.09away · Fredrikstad1:1
- 06.09Vålerenga2:2
- 30.08away · Tromsø0:0
- 16.08Sandefjord1:2
Head to head
- 22.10.2023Aalesund — Sarpsborg 083:2
- 29.05.2023Sarpsborg 08 — Aalesund3:1
- 11.09.2022Aalesund — Sarpsborg 081:3
- 22.05.2022Sarpsborg 08 — Aalesund1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 22 | 8 | -7 | 29 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 | 22 | 7 | -3 | 28 |
| 10 | KFUM | 22 | 8 | -9 | 28 |
| 13 | Vålerenga | 22 | 6 | -10 | 23 |
| 14, Relegation play-off | Aalesund | 22 | 4 | -15 | 21 |
| 15, Relegation | Kristiansund | 22 | 5 | -21 | 19 |
Next matches
- KristiansundAalesund17 October · Eliteserien4127321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.6
- Sarpsborg 08Rosenborg18 October · Eliteserien3727361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.3
Eliteserien on the same day
- 2830422The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.6
- 5025241The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:4Final score 2:4. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
- 3528372The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:1.3.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →