Norwegian Eliteserien, round 23 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Nye Fredrikstad Stadion
Fredrikstad — Tromsø
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In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Tromsø to win (42%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 42% fails in about 58 matches out of 100 on average.
Tromsø are slightly stronger: 42% against 28%, draw 30%.
The model expects few goals: 2.6 in total, against a competition average of 3.2.
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Tromsø are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Fredrikstad — Tromsø What is xG? | 1.2–1.4 | |
| Fredrikstad not to lose | 58% | |
| Tromsø not to lose | 72% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Fredrikstad
- Fredrikstad goals
- Tromsø goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 20.09away · Vålerenga1:1
- 13.09Sarpsborg 081:1
- 04.09Bodø/Glimt1:2
- 30.08away · Lillestrøm4:1
- 16.08Kristiansund1:0
- 20.09Hamarkameratene3:2
- 12.09away · Rosenborg3:5
- 06.09away · Kristiansund0:2
- 30.08Sarpsborg 080:0
- 16.08away · Molde2:3
Head to head
- 15.03.2026Tromsø — Fredrikstad4:0
- 02.08.2025Tromsø — Fredrikstad0:0
- 29.06.2025Fredrikstad — Tromsø0:1
- 29.05.2024Tromsø — Fredrikstad3:0
- 25.05.2024Fredrikstad — Tromsø0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Champions League qualifying | Viking | 22 | 17 | +36 | 53 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Tromsø | 22 | 11 | +11 | 39 |
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Molde | 22 | 11 | +12 | 37 |
| 7 | Brann | 22 | 9 | +5 | 29 |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 22 | 8 | -7 | 29 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 | 22 | 7 | -3 | 28 |
Next matches
- VikingFredrikstad17 October · Eliteserien761681The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.3
- TromsøKFUM18 October · Eliteserien6422141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
Eliteserien on the same day
- 5025241The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:4Final score 2:4. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
- 3628362The most likely outcome came true: 22:4Final score 2:4. Model's score: 0:1.3.6
- 3528372The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:1.3.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →