Scottish Premiership, round 11 · Wednesday, 28 October, MSK
Aberdeen — Falkirk
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 28 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Aberdeen 35%, Falkirk 35%, draw 30%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Falkirk are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Aberdeen — Falkirk What is xG? | 1.3–1.3 | |
| Aberdeen not to lose | 65% | |
| Falkirk not to lose | 65% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 45% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 55% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Aberdeen
- Aberdeen goals
- Falkirk goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10St. Johnstone0:1
- 19.09away · Hibernian1:1
- 15.09away · Motherwell4:0
- 05.09Kilmarnock0:0
- 02.09away · Celtic0:3
- 10.10Dundee FC1:2
- 19.09away · St. Johnstone1:1
- 15.09Heart of Midlothian2:1
- 05.09away · Dundee United1:1
- 02.09Rangers1:2
Head to head
- 14.03.2026Aberdeen — Falkirk1:1
- 03.01.2026Falkirk — Aberdeen1:0
- 31.08.2025Aberdeen — Falkirk0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7, Relegation round | St. Mirren | 8 | 3 | -6 | 10 |
| 8, Relegation round | Aberdeen | 8 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 9, Relegation round | Motherwell | 8 | 2 | -4 | 8 |
| 10, Relegation round | Hibernian | 8 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 11, Relegation round | Falkirk | 8 | 1 | -4 | 6 |
| 12, Relegation round | Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | -11 | 5 |
Scottish Premiership on the same day
- CelticDundee Unitedpreliminary821161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.7
- Dundee FCKilmarnockpreliminary4328291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- St. JohnstoneMotherwellpreliminary3129402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.6
- St. MirrenHibernianpreliminary3229392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.5
- Heart of MidlothianRangerspreliminary3329382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 35% will not happen in roughly 65 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →