Scottish Premiership, round 11 · Wednesday, 28 October, MSK
Dundee FC — Kilmarnock
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 28 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Dundee FC are slightly stronger: 46% against 27%, draw 27%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Dundee FC — No. 4, 13 pts; Kilmarnock — No. 12, 5 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Dundee FC 1 win, Kilmarnock 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Dundee FC — Kilmarnock What is xG? | 1.7–1.4 | |
| Dundee FC not to lose | 73% | |
| Kilmarnock not to lose | 54% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 62% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 38% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Dundee FC
- Dundee FC goals
- Kilmarnock goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Falkirk2:1
- 19.09Motherwell2:1
- 06.09away · Heart of Midlothian1:2
- 02.09St. Johnstone1:1
- 30.08Hibernian1:2
- 10.10away · Rangers1:3
- 19.09Heart of Midlothian1:1
- 15.09away · Hibernian1:0
- 05.09away · Aberdeen0:0
- 02.09St. Mirren0:1
Head to head
- 12.05.2026Kilmarnock — Dundee FC3:1
- 11.04.2026Kilmarnock — Dundee FC2:2
- 30.12.2025Dundee FC — Kilmarnock2:1
- 23.08.2025Kilmarnock — Dundee FC0:0
- 10.05.2025Kilmarnock — Dundee FC3:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Championship round | Heart of Midlothian | 8 | 5 | +11 | 16 |
| 4, Championship round | Dundee FC | 8 | 4 | +3 | 13 |
| 5, Championship round | St. Johnstone | 8 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11, Relegation round | Falkirk | 8 | 1 | -4 | 6 |
| 12, Relegation round | Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | -11 | 5 |
Scottish Premiership on the same day
- AberdeenFalkirkpreliminary4629251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- CelticDundee Unitedpreliminary771491The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.6
- St. JohnstoneMotherwellpreliminary4029311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- St. MirrenHibernianpreliminary3229392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- Heart of MidlothianRangerspreliminary2928432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →