Kazakhstan Premier League, round 23 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Aktobe — Ordabasy Shymkent
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Ordabasy Shymkent are clear favourites: 47% against 25% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Ordabasy Shymkent are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Aktobe — No. 4, 45 pts; Ordabasy Shymkent — No. 1, 64 pts. A gap of 19 pts.
- Aktobe: unbeaten in 4; Ordabasy Shymkent: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Aktobe 0 wins, Ordabasy Shymkent 1, 4 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Aktobe — Ordabasy Shymkent What is xG? | 1.1–1.6 | |
| Aktobe not to lose | 53% | |
| Ordabasy Shymkent not to lose | 75% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Aktobe
- Aktobe goals
- Ordabasy Shymkent goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · FC Yelimay3:1
- 18.09Ulytau2:2
- 12.09away · Kaspiy Aktau2:1
- 05.09Zhenis1:0
- 30.08away · Irtysh Pavlodar1:2
- 11.10away · Kaisar Kyzylorda4:1
- 17.09away · Atyrau3:0
- 12.09FC Astana1:0
- 05.09away · Okzhetpes Kokshetau1:2
- 29.08FC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk3:0
Head to head
- 03.05.2026Ordabasy Shymkent — Aktobe2:0
- 26.10.2025Aktobe — Ordabasy Shymkent2:2
- 01.03.2025Ordabasy Shymkent — Aktobe0:0
- 25.08.2024Ordabasy Shymkent — Aktobe1:1
- 18.05.2024Aktobe — Ordabasy Shymkent0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy Shymkent | 27 | 20 | +36 | 64 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 27 | 18 | +32 | 60 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 27 | 15 | +17 | 51 |
| 4 | Aktobe | 27 | 13 | +9 | 45 |
| 5 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 27 | 13 | +4 | 45 |
Kazakhstan Premier League on the same day
- 5126231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 363033XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.3
- 5226221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →