Kazakhstan Premier League: 2026 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 26 matches to play · updated 14 October 2026
The model played the remaining 26 matches 10,000 times. Ordabasy Shymkent have the best chance to win the title: 88%, Kairat Almaty 12%.
Race for the title
| Date | Ordabasy Shymkent | Kairat Almaty | FC Astana | FC Yelimay | Aktobe | Zhenis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 March | 3% | 33% | 30% | 9% | 10% | 5% |
| 16 March | 3% | 32% | 31% | 9% | 11% | 5% |
| 23 March | 14% | 24% | 40% | 13% | 2% | — |
| 30 March | 14% | 24% | 41% | 13% | 2% | 1% |
| 6 April | 8% | 60% | 14% | 13% | 1% | <1% |
| 13 April | 8% | 53% | 10% | 21% | 2% | — |
| 20 April | 8% | 61% | 11% | 14% | 1% | <1% |
| 27 April | 15% | 48% | 16% | 18% | 1% | <1% |
| 4 May | 22% | 57% | 6% | 11% | <1% | <1% |
| 11 May | 22% | 61% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 18 May | 19% | 72% | 4% | 2% | 1% | — |
| 25 May | 41% | 45% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 1 June | 57% | 30% | 5% | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 8 June | 57% | 31% | 5% | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 15 June | 76% | 17% | 4% | 1% | <1% | — |
| 22 June | 69% | 28% | 1% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 29 June | 69% | 30% | <1% | <1% | — | — |
| 6 July | 63% | 36% | <1% | <1% | — | — |
| 13 July | 49% | 50% | 1% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 20 July | 47% | 52% | <1% | — | — | — |
| 27 July | 33% | 66% | <1% | — | — | — |
| 3 August | 39% | 61% | 1% | — | — | — |
| 10 August | 49% | 51% | <1% | — | — | — |
| 17 August | 48% | 52% | <1% | — | — | — |
| 24 August | 48% | 52% | <1% | — | — | — |
| 31 August | 56% | 44% | <1% | — | — | — |
| 7 September | 18% | 82% | <1% | — | — | — |
| 14 September | 44% | 56% | <1% | — | — | — |
| 21 September | 75% | 25% | <1% | — | — | — |
| 28 September | 76% | 24% | — | — | — | — |
| 5 October | 76% | 24% | — | — | — | — |
| 12 October | 88% | 12% | — | — | — | — |
| 14 October | 88% | 12% | — | — | — | — |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy Shymkent | 64 (27) | 70 | 8 | 88%▲12 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 60 (27) | 67 | 15 | 12%▼12 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 48 (26) | 57 | 16 | — |
| 4 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 45 (27) | 50 | 12 | — |
| 5 | Aktobe | 45 (27) | 48 | 1 | — |
| 6 | FC Yelimay | 38 (26) | 45 | 10 | — |
| 7 | Tobol Kostanay | 37 (27) | 42 | 14 | — |
| 8 | Ulytau | 35 (27) | 39 | 7 | — |
| 9 | Zhenis | 32 (27) | 35 | 3 | — |
| 10 | Kaspiy Aktau | 32 (27) | 35 | 4 | — |
| 11 | FC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk | 28 (27) | 32 | 9 | — |
| 12 | Atyrau | 26 (26) | 31 | 13 | — |
| 13 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 26 (26) | 29 | 2 | — |
| 14 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 24 (27) | 27 | 5 | — |
| 15 | FC Altai Oskemen | 23 (27) | 26 | 6 | — |
| 16 | Zhetysu Taldykorgan | 22 (27) | 25 | 11 | — |
Chance of every place
Show the 16 × 16 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ordabasy Shymkent | 88 | 12 | ||||||||||||||
| Kairat Almaty | 12 | 88 | ||||||||||||||
| FC Astana | 98 | 2 | ||||||||||||||
| Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 2 | 59 | 31 | 8 | ||||||||||||
| Aktobe | 1 | 34 | 52 | 12 | 1 | |||||||||||
| FC Yelimay | 5 | 14 | 55 | 22 | 4 | |||||||||||
| Tobol Kostanay | 3 | 22 | 62 | 11 | 2 | |||||||||||
| Ulytau | 3 | 12 | 60 | 19 | 6 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Zhenis | 2 | 11 | 36 | 33 | 14 | 3 | ||||||||||
| Kaspiy Aktau | 1 | 10 | 30 | 34 | 17 | 8 | 1 | |||||||||
| FC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk | 1 | 7 | 14 | 28 | 33 | 13 | 3 | |||||||||
| Atyrau | 2 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 29 | 16 | 7 | 3 | ||||||||
| Irtysh Pavlodar | 1 | 3 | 10 | 18 | 35 | 22 | 10 | 1 | ||||||||
| Kaisar Kyzylorda | 1 | 4 | 15 | 29 | 26 | 26 | ||||||||||
| FC Altai Oskemen | 1 | 4 | 12 | 22 | 37 | 24 | ||||||||||
| Zhetysu Taldykorgan | 1 | 8 | 17 | 24 | 49 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
Kazakhstan Premier League: matches and table →
Kazakhstan Premier League: power rankings →