Saudi Pro League, round 10 · Monday, 19 October, MSK
Al-Fayha — Al Ahli
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 19 October
In short
Al Ahli are clear favourites: 67% against 11% for the opponent, draw 22%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Al Ahli are about 1.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Al-Fayha — No. 13, 7 pts; Al Ahli — No. 6, 15 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
- Al-Fayha: winless in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Al-Fayha 0 wins, Al Ahli 4, 1 draw.
- Days of rest before the match: Al-Fayha 8, Al Ahli 10.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Al-Fayha — Al Ahli What is xG? | 0.8–2.1 | |
| Al-Fayha not to lose | 33% | |
| Al Ahli not to lose | 89% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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- Al Ahli goals
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Form
- 11.10Al Riyadh1:1
- 12.09away · Al Shabab0:0
- 08.09away · Al Ittihad1:2
- 03.09Al Kholood2:2
- 28.08Abha3:2
- 09.10away · Al Fateh FC4:0
- 11.09Al Hazem3:1
- 08.09away · Al Qadsiah2:3
- 04.09Al Riyadh5:0
- 01.09away · Al Hilal0:3
Head to head
- 08.04.2026Al-Fayha — Al Ahli1:1
- 30.12.2025Al Ahli — Al-Fayha2:0
- 18.04.2025Al Ahli — Al-Fayha5:0
- 22.11.2024Al-Fayha — Al Ahli0:1
- 27.05.2024Al Ahli — Al-Fayha1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Neom SC | 8 | 5 | +7 | 16 |
| 6 | Al Ahli | 8 | 5 | +10 | 15 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 8 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Al Shabab | 8 | 1 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Al-Fayha | 8 | 1 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Al Khaleej | 8 | 0 | -7 | 6 |
Saudi Pro League on the same day
- 2830422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.7
- 91721The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.9
- 5526191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 67% will not happen in roughly 33 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →