Saudi Pro League, round 10 · Monday, 19 October, MSK

Abha — Al Kholood

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Model prediction for 19 October

Abha28%
Draw30%
Al Kholood42%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Al Kholood are slightly stronger: 42% against 28%, draw 30%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).

Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 58%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Al Kholood are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.

Facts

  • League table: Abha — No. 18, 2 pts; Al Kholood — No. 8, 12 pts. A gap of 10 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Abha — Al Kholood What is xG?1.2–1.5
Abha not to lose58%
Al Kholood not to lose72%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes58%
Both teams to score: no42%
Total over 2.552%
Total under 2.548%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Abha
  • Abha goals
  • Al Kholood goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Abha

  • 13.09away · Al Diriyah0:0
  • 09.09away · Al Nassr FC1:2
  • 04.09Al-Ettifaq0:1
  • 28.08away · Al-Fayha2:3
  • 25.08Al Khaleej1:1

Al Kholood

  • 09.10Al Qadsiah0:5
  • 13.09away · Al Riyadh0:2
  • 09.09Al Shabab2:1
  • 03.09away · Al-Fayha2:2
  • 29.08Al Ahli3:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
7Al-Ettifaq833212–12012
8Al Kholood833212–15-312
9Al Diriyah83237–8-111
17, RelegationAl-Taawoun80353–15-123
18, RelegationAbha70255–13-82

Season 2026/27

Full table

Saudi Pro League on the same day

  • 2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:32.9
  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.9
  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →