Saudi Pro League, round 8 · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Ar-Rass Stadium (Al Hazm Club Stadium)
Al Kholood — Al Qadsiah
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0:5Came true
In short
Final score 0:5: the model's most likely outcome, Al Qadsiah to win (67%), came true.
Al Qadsiah are clear favourites: 67% against 12% for the opponent, draw 21%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.4 in total, against a competition average of 3.0.
Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Al Qadsiah are about 1.1 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Al Kholood — Al Qadsiah What is xG? | 1.0–2.3 | |
| Al Kholood not to lose | 33% | |
| Al Qadsiah not to lose | 88% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 66% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 34% |
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Form
- 13.09away · Al Riyadh0:2
- 09.09Al Shabab2:1
- 03.09away · Al-Fayha2:2
- 29.08Al Ahli3:1
- 26.08away · Al Diriyah1:1
- 11.09Al-Ettifaq3:3
- 08.09Al Ahli3:2
- 03.09away · Al Diriyah2:0
- 30.08Al-Faisaly3:1
- 24.08away · Neom SC2:0
Head to head
- 07.03.2026Al Kholood — Al Qadsiah1:4
- 06.11.2025Al Qadsiah — Al Kholood4:0
- 02.05.2025Al Qadsiah — Al Kholood4:1
- 06.12.2024Al Kholood — Al Qadsiah0:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Hilal | 8 | 7 | +19 | 21 |
| 2 | Al Qadsiah | 8 | 6 | +13 | 19 |
| 3 | Al Nassr FC | 8 | 6 | +12 | 19 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 8 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | Al Kholood | 8 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 9 | Al Diriyah | 8 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
Next matches
- Al-FaisalyAl Kholood15 October · Saudi Pro League343036XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.6
- Al QadsiahAbha16 October · Saudi Pro League88931The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.6
Saudi Pro League on the same day
- 1423632The most likely outcome came true: 20:4Final score 0:4. Model's score: 0:2.3.4
- 6921111The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 67% will not happen in roughly 33 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →