Saudi Pro League, round 9 · Friday, 16 October, MSK

Al Qadsiah — Abha

☆ Save match

Model prediction for 16 October

Al Qadsiah88%
Draw9%
Abha3%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Al Qadsiah are clear favourites: 88% against 3% for the opponent, draw 9%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.6 in total, against a competition average of 3.0.

Over 2.5 goals — 70%, both teams to score — 47%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Al Qadsiah are about 1.8 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Al Qadsiah — Abha What is xG?2.9–0.7
Al Qadsiah not to lose97%
Abha not to lose12%
No draw91%
Both teams to score: yes47%
Both teams to score: no53%
Total over 2.570%
Total under 2.530%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Al Qadsiah
  • Al Qadsiah goals
  • Abha goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Form

Al Qadsiah

  • 09.10away · Al Kholood5:0
  • 11.09Al-Ettifaq3:3
  • 08.09Al Ahli3:2
  • 03.09away · Al Diriyah2:0
  • 30.08Al-Faisaly3:1

Abha

  • 13.09away · Al Diriyah0:0
  • 09.09away · Al Nassr FC1:2
  • 04.09Al-Ettifaq0:1
  • 28.08away · Al-Fayha2:3
  • 25.08Al Khaleej1:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1Al Hilal870126–7+1921
2Al Qadsiah861121–8+1319
3Al Nassr FC861119–7+1219
17, RelegationAl-Taawoun80353–15-123
18, RelegationAbha70255–13-82

Season 2026/27

Full table

Saudi Pro League on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 88% will not happen in roughly 12 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →