Saudi Pro League, round 12 · Thursday, 29 October, MSK
Al Riyadh — Al Qadsiah
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 29 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Al Qadsiah are clear favourites: 72% against 9% for the opponent, draw 19%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.4 in total, against a competition average of 3.0.
Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Al Qadsiah are about 1.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Al Riyadh — No. 11, 9 pts; Al Qadsiah — No. 2, 19 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
- Al Qadsiah: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 4 meetings: Al Riyadh 1 win, Al Qadsiah 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Al Riyadh — Al Qadsiah What is xG? | 0.9–2.5 | |
| Al Riyadh not to lose | 28% | |
| Al Qadsiah not to lose | 91% | |
| No draw | 81% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 64% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 36% |
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- Handicap Al Riyadh
- Al Riyadh goals
- Al Qadsiah goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 11.10away · Al-Fayha1:1
- 13.09Al Kholood2:0
- 07.09away · Al Khaleej0:0
- 04.09away · Al Ahli0:5
- 28.08Neom SC1:0
- 09.10away · Al Kholood5:0
- 11.09Al-Ettifaq3:3
- 08.09Al Ahli3:2
- 03.09away · Al Diriyah2:0
- 30.08Al-Faisaly3:1
Head to head
- 29.04.2026Al Riyadh — Al Qadsiah0:4
- 04.01.2026Al Qadsiah — Al Riyadh4:0
- 02.03.2025Al Qadsiah — Al Riyadh1:0
- 04.10.2024Al Riyadh — Al Qadsiah2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Hilal | 8 | 7 | +19 | 21 |
| 2 | Al Qadsiah | 8 | 6 | +13 | 19 |
| 3 | Al Nassr FC | 8 | 6 | +12 | 19 |
| 10 | Al Hazem | 8 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Al Riyadh | 8 | 2 | -8 | 9 |
| 12 | Al Shabab | 8 | 1 | -2 | 7 |
Saudi Pro League on the same day
- Al KhaleejAl Hazempreliminary4628261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- Al Nassr FCAl Kholoodpreliminary811361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 72% will not happen in roughly 28 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →