Saudi Pro League, round 8 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · SHG Arena
Al Shabab — Al-Taawoun
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3:0Came true
In short
Final score 3:0: the model's most likely outcome, Al Shabab to win (42%), came true.
Al Shabab are slightly stronger: 42% against 29%, draw 28%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 66%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Al Shabab are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Al Shabab — Al-Taawoun What is xG? | 1.7–1.4 | |
| Al Shabab not to lose | 71% | |
| Al-Taawoun not to lose | 58% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 66% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 34% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
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- Al Shabab goals
- Al-Taawoun goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 12.09Al-Fayha0:0
- 09.09away · Al Kholood1:2
- 04.09Al Hilal0:2
- 30.08away · Al Hazem1:1
- 25.08Al Riyadh3:3
- 12.09Al Hilal0:6
- 08.09away · Al Hazem0:1
- 05.09Al Fateh FC0:0
- 28.08away · Al Nassr FC1:2
- 25.08Al-Fayha0:0
Head to head
- 03.05.2026Al Shabab — Al-Taawoun1:5
- 09.01.2026Al-Taawoun — Al Shabab2:0
- 22.02.2025Al-Taawoun — Al Shabab2:2
- 21.09.2024Al Shabab — Al-Taawoun1:0
- 18.05.2024Al-Taawoun — Al Shabab1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Al Riyadh | 8 | 2 | -8 | 9 |
| 12 | Al Shabab | 8 | 1 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Al-Fayha | 8 | 1 | -4 | 7 |
| 16, Relegation | Al Fateh FC | 8 | 0 | -11 | 3 |
| 17, Relegation | Al-Taawoun | 8 | 0 | -12 | 3 |
| 18, Relegation | Abha | 7 | 0 | -8 | 2 |
Next matches
- Al DiriyahAl-Taawoun17 October · Saudi Pro League4530241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
- Al ShababAl-Faisaly19 October · Saudi Pro League5526191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
Saudi Pro League on the same day
- 4629241The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →