Saudi Pro League, round 8 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium
Al-Fayha — Al Riyadh
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Al-Fayha to win (46%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 46% fails in about 54 matches out of 100 on average.
Al-Fayha are clear favourites: 46% against 24% for the opponent, draw 29%.
The model expects few goals: 2.6 in total, against a competition average of 3.0.
Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Al-Fayha are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Al-Fayha — Al Riyadh What is xG? | 1.5–1.1 | |
| Al-Fayha not to lose | 76% | |
| Al Riyadh not to lose | 54% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 47% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 53% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Al-Fayha
- Al-Fayha goals
- Al Riyadh goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 12.09away · Al Shabab0:0
- 08.09away · Al Ittihad1:2
- 03.09Al Kholood2:2
- 28.08Abha3:2
- 25.08away · Al-Taawoun0:0
- 13.09Al Kholood2:0
- 07.09away · Al Khaleej0:0
- 04.09away · Al Ahli0:5
- 28.08Neom SC1:0
- 25.08away · Al Shabab3:3
Head to head
- 04.05.2026Al-Fayha — Al Riyadh4:2
- 10.01.2026Al Riyadh — Al-Fayha1:1
- 26.02.2025Al Riyadh — Al-Fayha0:0
- 29.09.2024Al-Fayha — Al Riyadh2:0
- 15.03.2024Al-Fayha — Al Riyadh1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Al Hazem | 8 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Al Riyadh | 8 | 2 | -8 | 9 |
| 12 | Al Shabab | 8 | 1 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Al-Fayha | 8 | 1 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Al Khaleej | 8 | 0 | -7 | 6 |
Next matches
- Al KhaleejAl-Fayha15 October · Saudi Pro League4330261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- Al RiyadhAl Hilal16 October · Saudi Pro League514812The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:43.8
Saudi Pro League on the same day
- 4228291The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →