Saudi Pro League, round 9 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK

Al Diriyah — Al-Taawoun

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Model prediction for 17 October

Al Diriyah45%
Draw30%
Al-Taawoun24%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Al Diriyah are clear favourites: 45% against 24% for the opponent, draw 30%.

The model expects few goals: 2.6 in total, against a competition average of 3.0.

Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 55%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Al Diriyah — Al-Taawoun What is xG?1.5–1.1
Al Diriyah not to lose76%
Al-Taawoun not to lose55%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes55%
Both teams to score: no45%
Total over 2.548%
Total under 2.552%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Al Diriyah
  • Al Diriyah goals
  • Al-Taawoun goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Al Diriyah

  • 09.10away · Al Nassr FC0:3
  • 13.09Abha0:0
  • 09.09away · Al Fateh FC2:1
  • 03.09Al Qadsiah0:2
  • 29.08away · Al-Ettifaq3:0

Al-Taawoun

  • 11.10away · Al Shabab0:3
  • 12.09Al Hilal0:6
  • 08.09away · Al Hazem0:1
  • 05.09Al Fateh FC0:0
  • 28.08away · Al Nassr FC1:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
8Al Kholood833212–15-312
9Al Diriyah83237–8-111
10Al Hazem82338–10-29
16, RelegationAl Fateh FC80354–15-113
17, RelegationAl-Taawoun80353–15-123
18, RelegationAbha70255–13-82

Season 2026/27

Full table

Saudi Pro League on the same day

  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →