Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 9 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Alverca — Arouca
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Alverca are slightly stronger: 42% against 29%, draw 29%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Alverca are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Alverca — Arouca What is xG? | 1.5–1.2 | |
| Alverca not to lose | 71% | |
| Arouca not to lose | 58% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Alverca
- Alverca goals
- Arouca goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 12.10away · Famalicão4:1
- 19.09Rio Ave1:0
- 12.09away · Nacional3:1
- 05.09Braga1:2
- 29.08Santa Clara1:1
- 11.10Estrela da Amadora1:0
- 19.09away · Sporting CP2:2
- 13.09Santa Clara1:2
- 07.09away · Estoril0:0
- 29.08Marítimo2:1
Head to head
- 24.04.2026Alverca — Arouca2:1
- 14.12.2025Arouca — Alverca1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | +8 | 18 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Arouca | 8 | 4 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | Académico Viseu | 8 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
Primeira Liga on the same day
- Estrela da AmadoraCasa Pia ACpreliminary4530261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- Gil VicenteFC Portopreliminary1828542The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →