Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 9 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Estrela da Amadora — Casa Pia AC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Estrela da Amadora are slightly stronger: 45% against 26%, draw 30%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Estrela da Amadora are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Estrela da Amadora — Casa Pia AC What is xG? | 1.5–1.1 | |
| Estrela da Amadora not to lose | 74% | |
| Casa Pia AC not to lose | 55% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Estrela da Amadora
- Estrela da Amadora goals
- Casa Pia AC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Arouca0:1
- 20.09Académico Viseu0:2
- 14.09away · Rio Ave3:3
- 10.09Braga2:1
- 05.09Famalicão2:2
- 10.10Santa Clara0:1
- 20.09away · Estoril2:1
- 12.09FC Porto1:4
- 06.09away · Vitória de Guimarães0:0
- 30.08Moreirense0:1
Head to head
- 20.03.2026Estrela da Amadora — Casa Pia AC4:0
- 01.11.2025Casa Pia AC — Estrela da Amadora3:5
- 09.02.2025Casa Pia AC — Estrela da Amadora1:0
- 31.08.2024Estrela da Amadora — Casa Pia AC0:1
- 08.03.2024Estrela da Amadora — Casa Pia AC3:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Braga | 7 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela da Amadora | 8 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Marítimo | 8 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Nacional | 8 | 1 | -9 | 4 |
| 17, Relegation | Casa Pia AC | 8 | 1 | -14 | 4 |
| 18, Relegation | Estoril | 8 | 0 | -8 | 2 |
Primeira Liga on the same day
- AlvercaAroucapreliminary4229291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- Gil VicenteFC Portopreliminary1828542The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →