Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 9 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Gil Vicente — FC Porto
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
FC Porto are clear favourites: 66% against 11% for the opponent, draw 23%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Porto are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Gil Vicente — No. 8, 11 pts; FC Porto — No. 1, 24 pts. A gap of 13 pts.
- FC Porto: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Gil Vicente 1 win, FC Porto 3, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Gil Vicente — FC Porto What is xG? | 0.8–1.9 | |
| Gil Vicente not to lose | 34% | |
| FC Porto not to lose | 89% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Gil Vicente
- Gil Vicente goals
- FC Porto goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10away · Moreirense1:0
- 19.09Marítimo1:1
- 13.09away · Benfica1:3
- 06.09Académico Viseu0:1
- 30.08away · Famalicão0:0
- 10.10away · Marítimo2:1
- 20.09Benfica3:1
- 12.09away · Casa Pia AC4:1
- 08.09Manchester City0:2
- 04.09Moreirense2:1
Head to head
- 26.01.2026FC Porto — Gil Vicente3:0
- 18.08.2025Gil Vicente — FC Porto0:2
- 19.01.2025Gil Vicente — FC Porto3:1
- 10.08.2024FC Porto — Gil Vicente3:0
- 25.02.2024Gil Vicente — FC Porto1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | +16 | 24 |
| 2, Champions League | Benfica | 8 | 6 | +17 | 19 |
| 7 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 | Braga | 7 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
Primeira Liga on the same day
- Estrela da AmadoraCasa Pia ACpreliminary4829231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- AlvercaAroucapreliminary4229291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →