English Premier League, round 6 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Villa Park
Aston Villa — Brentford
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:2Came true
In short
Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (29%), came true.
Evenly matched: Aston Villa 35%, Brentford 35%, draw 29%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 62%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Aston Villa — Brentford What is xG? | 1.5–1.5 | |
| Aston Villa not to lose | 65% | |
| Brentford not to lose | 65% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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Form
- 19.09away · Tottenham Hotspur3:2
- 16.09away · Coventry City3:1
- 12.09Nottingham Forest1:2
- 08.09away · Club Brugge3:2
- 05.09away · Hull City0:0
- 18.09Chelsea3:0
- 15.09away · Reading2:1
- 12.09away · AFC Bournemouth2:2
- 05.09Sunderland1:1
- 30.08away · Leeds United1:1
Head to head
- 01.02.2026Aston Villa — Brentford0:1
- 16.09.2025Brentford — Aston Villa1:1
- 23.08.2025Brentford — Aston Villa1:0
- 08.03.2025Brentford — Aston Villa0:1
- 04.12.2024Aston Villa — Brentford3:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Champions League | Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 | 4 | +13 | 13 |
| 4, Champions League | Brentford | 6 | 2 | +6 | 10 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Everton | 6 | 2 | +3 | 10 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | -6 | 4 |
Next matches
- Aston VillaFenerbahçe14 October · Champions League5125241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- BrentfordLiverpool17 October · Premier League352935XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:13.1
Premier League on the same day
- 7119101The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.7
- 4627281The most likely outcome came true: 15:1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.3
- 2228502The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 2229492The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 6124151The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 35% will not happen in roughly 65 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →