English Premier League, round 6 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Portman Road
Ipswich Town — Fulham
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2:1Missed
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Fulham to win (50%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 50% fails in about 50 matches out of 100 on average.
Fulham are clear favourites: 50% against 22% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Fulham are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ipswich Town — Fulham What is xG? | 1.1–1.6 | |
| Ipswich Town not to lose | 50% | |
| Fulham not to lose | 78% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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- All totals
- Handicap Ipswich Town
- Ipswich Town goals
- Fulham goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 19.09away · Everton0:1
- 15.09Arsenal2:4
- 12.09away · Crystal Palace3:2
- 04.09Liverpool0:2
- 30.08away · Manchester United2:5
- 20.09Manchester United1:1
- 15.09away · West Ham United3:2
- 12.09away · Liverpool0:0
- 05.09Crystal Palace2:3
- 30.08away · Sunderland0:1
Head to head
- 05.01.2025Fulham — Ipswich Town2:2
- 31.08.2024Ipswich Town — Fulham1:1
- 01.11.2023Ipswich Town — Fulham1:3
- 16.09.2020Ipswich Town — Fulham0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle United | 6 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 19, Relegation | Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 0 | -6 | 3 |
| 20, Relegation | Fulham | 6 | 0 | -4 | 2 |
Next matches
- Manchester CityIpswich Town17 October · Premier League831251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.6
- FulhamHull City17 October · Premier League5326211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
Premier League on the same day
- 7119101The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.7
- 352935XThe most likely outcome came true: X2:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:1.2.9
- 4627281The most likely outcome came true: 15:1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.3
- 2229492The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 6124151The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →