Serie A, round 6 · Monday, 12 October, MSK · New Balance Arena
Atalanta — Venezia
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
3:1Came true
In short
Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Atalanta to win (74%), came true.
Atalanta are clear favourites: 74% against 8% for the opponent, draw 18%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Atalanta are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atalanta — Venezia What is xG? | 2.4–0.8 | |
| Atalanta not to lose | 92% | |
| Venezia not to lose | 26% | |
| No draw | 82% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 64% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 36% |
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- Handicap Atalanta
- Atalanta goals
- Venezia goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 19.09Lazio0:2
- 11.09Fiorentina2:4
- 06.09away · Frosinone2:3
- 02.09away · Udinese1:2
- 28.08away · Milan0:2
Head to head
- 01.03.2025Atalanta — Venezia0:0
- 20.10.2024Venezia — Atalanta0:2
- 23.04.2022Venezia — Atalanta1:3
- 12.01.2022Atalanta — Venezia2:0
- 30.11.2021Atalanta — Venezia4:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 19, Relegation | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | -7 | 4 |
| 20, Relegation | Venezia | 6 | 0 | -11 | 0 |
Next matches
- AtalantaPafos FC15 October · Conference League6819131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
- VeneziaNapoli17 October · Serie A1221672The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
Serie A on the same day
- 373132XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:1.2.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 74% will not happen in roughly 26 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →