UEFA Conference League, round 1 · Thursday, 15 October, MSK · New Balance Arena
Atalanta — Pafos FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 October
In short
Atalanta are clear favourites: 68% against 13% for the opponent, draw 19%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Atalanta are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
- Atalanta: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atalanta — Pafos FC What is xG? | 2.2–0.9 | |
| Atalanta not to lose | 87% | |
| Pafos FC not to lose | 32% | |
| No draw | 81% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Atalanta
- Atalanta goals
- Pafos FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 28.01Slavia Prague4:1
- 21.01away · Chelsea0:1
- 10.12away · Juventus0:2
- 26.11Monaco2:2
- 05.11Villarreal1:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Conference League on the same day
- 5225231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- 7218111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.2
- 5624201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- 2024562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
- 3427402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- 2024562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
- 2525502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:32.8
- 1521642The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 68% will not happen in roughly 32 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →