La Liga, round 11 · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
Athletic Club — Real Sociedad
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Athletic Club are clear favourites: 55% against 20% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Athletic Club are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Athletic Club — No. 10, 8 pts; Real Sociedad — No. 6, 13 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Athletic Club 0 wins, Real Sociedad 3, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Athletic Club — Real Sociedad What is xG? | 1.6–0.9 | |
| Athletic Club not to lose | 80% | |
| Real Sociedad not to lose | 45% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
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- Handicap Athletic Club
- Athletic Club goals
- Real Sociedad goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 19.09Deportivo Alavés0:0
- 12.09Elche1:1
- 05.09Atlético Madrid3:0
- 30.08away · Celta Vigo2:0
- 27.08away · Barcelona0:2
- 11.10Deportivo A Coruña3:2
- 20.09away · Valencia3:2
- 17.09AFC Bournemouth1:2
- 13.09Atlético Madrid0:3
- 07.09away · Elche3:2
Head to head
- 04.03.2026Real Sociedad — Athletic Club1:0
- 11.02.2026Athletic Club — Real Sociedad0:1
- 01.02.2026Athletic Club — Real Sociedad1:1
- 01.11.2025Real Sociedad — Athletic Club3:2
- 04.05.2025Real Sociedad — Athletic Club0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Deportivo Alavés | 8 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
La Liga on the same day
- GetafeSevillapreliminary4131281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.0
- Racing SantanderReal Madridpreliminary1318682The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.9
- ElcheValenciapreliminary363133XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →