Liga MX (Mexico), round 11 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Estadio Jalisco
Atlas — Chivas
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1:1Missed
In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Chivas to win (47%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 47% fails in about 53 matches out of 100 on average.
Chivas are clear favourites: 47% against 24% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Chivas are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atlas — Chivas What is xG? | 1.1–1.6 | |
| Atlas not to lose | 53% | |
| Chivas not to lose | 76% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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- Handicap Atlas
- Atlas goals
- Chivas goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 27.09Querétaro FC0:2
- 20.09away · CF América2:2
- 14.09Pumas3:0
- 06.09away · Atlético de San Luis3:0
- 30.08away · Pachuca1:1
Head to head
- 08.03.2026Atlas — Chivas1:2
- 26.10.2025Chivas — Atlas4:1
- 20.04.2025Atlas — Chivas1:1
- 06.10.2024Chivas — Atlas2:3
- 28.04.2024Atlas — Chivas0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Liguilla (playoffs) | Querétaro FC | 10 | 6 | +7 | 20 |
| 4, Liguilla (playoffs) | Chivas | 11 | 5 | +7 | 19 |
| 5, Liguilla (playoffs) | León | 11 | 5 | +3 | 18 |
| 6, Liguilla (playoffs) | Atlas | 11 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 7, Liguilla (playoffs) | Cruz Azul | 11 | 5 | +1 | 17 |
Next matches
- NecaxaAtlas17 October · Liga MX4627271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- ChivasTigres18 October · Liga MX5028221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
Liga MX on the same day
- 3830321The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.3.1
- 3727361The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.1
- 5625191The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →