Liga MX (Mexico), round 11 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez
FC Juárez — Tijuana
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1:1Missed
In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, FC Juárez to win (37%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 37% fails in about 63 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: FC Juárez 37%, Tijuana 36%, draw 27%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 64%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Juárez — Tijuana What is xG? | 1.6–1.5 | |
| FC Juárez not to lose | 64% | |
| Tijuana not to lose | 63% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 36% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Juárez
- FC Juárez goals
- Tijuana goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 28.09away · León1:2
- 19.09Tigres2:0
- 14.09away · Santos Laguna1:2
- 05.09Pachuca0:2
- 31.08away · Toluca0:4
Head to head
- 11.04.2026FC Juárez — Tijuana1:2
- 26.07.2025Tijuana — FC Juárez1:1
- 15.02.2025Tijuana — FC Juárez1:2
- 07.11.2024FC Juárez — Tijuana1:1
- 15.04.2024FC Juárez — Tijuana0:1
Table
Next matches
- TijuanaPuebla17 October · Liga MX5825181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Cruz AzulFC Juárez18 October · Liga MX6919111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
Liga MX on the same day
- 3830321The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.3.1
- 2428472The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:1.2.7
- 5625191The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →