La Liga, round 10 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Atlético Madrid — Deportivo A Coruña
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Atlético Madrid are clear favourites: 78% against 7% for the opponent, draw 16%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 48%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Atlético Madrid are about 1.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Atlético Madrid — No. 2, 19 pts; Deportivo A Coruña — No. 8, 10 pts. A gap of 9 pts.
- Atlético Madrid: 5 wins in a row; Deportivo A Coruña: winless in 4.
- Days of rest before the match: Atlético Madrid 11, Deportivo A Coruña 13.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atlético Madrid — Deportivo A Coruña What is xG? | 2.2–0.7 | |
| Atlético Madrid not to lose | 93% | |
| Deportivo A Coruña not to lose | 22% | |
| No draw | 84% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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- Handicap Atlético Madrid
- Atlético Madrid goals
- Deportivo A Coruña goals
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Form
- 13.10Manchester United2:0
- 10.10away · Deportivo Alavés2:1
- 20.09Real Madrid2:1
- 16.09Osasuna4:0
- 13.09away · Real Sociedad3:0
- 11.10away · Real Sociedad2:3
- 20.09Real Betis1:1
- 16.09Sevilla0:1
- 13.09away · Getafe1:1
- 05.09away · Villarreal3:2
Head to head
- 13.01.2026Deportivo A Coruña — Atlético Madrid0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | +27 | 24 |
| 2, Champions League | Atlético Madrid | 8 | 6 | +10 | 19 |
| 3, Champions League | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | +5 | 19 |
| 7 | Deportivo Alavés | 8 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo A Coruña | 8 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
La Liga on the same day
- Rayo VallecanoElchepreliminary5726171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- Racing SantanderEspanyolpreliminary3729331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
- ValenciaVillarrealpreliminary2629452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 78% will not happen in roughly 22 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →