UEFA Champions League, round 2 · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK · Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Atlético Madrid — Manchester United
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2:0Came true
In short
Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Atlético Madrid to win (51%), came true.
Atlético Madrid are clear favourites: 51% against 24% for the opponent, draw 25%.
The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Atlético Madrid are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
- Atlético Madrid: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Facts
- Atlético Madrid: 4 wins in a row; Manchester United: winless in 4.
- Last 2 meetings: Atlético Madrid 1 win, Manchester United 0, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atlético Madrid — Manchester United What is xG? | 1.7–1.1 | |
| Atlético Madrid not to lose | 76% | |
| Manchester United not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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- Atlético Madrid goals
- Manchester United goals
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Form
- 10.10away · Deportivo Alavés2:1
- 20.09Real Madrid2:1
- 16.09Osasuna4:0
- 13.09away · Real Sociedad3:0
- 09.09away · Liverpool1:2
- 10.10Tottenham Hotspur1:1
- 20.09away · Fulham1:1
- 16.09Brighton & Hove Albion2:3
- 13.09Manchester City0:1
- 10.09Sabah FK4:0
Head to head
- 15.03.2022Manchester United — Atlético Madrid0:1
- 23.02.2022Atlético Madrid — Manchester United1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Straight to the round of 16 | Como | 1 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 7, Straight to the round of 16 | Manchester United | 2 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 8, Straight to the round of 16 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 11, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 12, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Atlético Madrid | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 13, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Next matches
- EspanyolAtlético Madrid17 October · La Liga2227522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.0
- Leeds UnitedManchester United18 October · Premier League373033XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 2:23.1
Champions League on the same day
- 4226321The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 3627372The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 6222171The most likely outcome did not happen: 13:4Final score 3:4. Model's score: 3:1.3.0
- 801471The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 3:0, exactly right.3.4
- 3927351The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 4027341The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 2425512The most likely outcome came true: 21:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 0:2.2.8
- 1219692The most likely outcome did not happen: 23:3Final score 3:3. Model's score: 0:3.3.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →